7 Highly Specific Art Industry Predictions for 2025

Throwing my cards on the table for the year ahead, from art fairs to art crime

Happy new year, everyone, and welcome back to a special edition of the Gray Market! It’s once again time for me to cut through the vagaries of prediction season with a set of calls so particular that they can be graded right or wrong at the end of the year, with no doubts and no mercy.

A little context for those of you new to TGM: since 2018, I’ve been using this exercise to think through multiple sectors of the art business—from auction results and dealer strategies to art crime and tech—in a way that’s both expansive enough to time-stamp the industry’s development and fine-grained enough to keep me accountable in the future. (If you missed my 2024 predictions evaluation, it’s still free to read here for another week. And if you didn’t already know I’m extraordinarily Capricorn, now you know.)

After having to shrink the scope of last year’s predictions to fit one printed page at The Art Newspaper, I’m back up to seven prognostications this year, and I’m coming in hot. If you’re not already a paid subscriber, hit the button below to find out what’s in store for 2025, and why, by upgrading your membership. TGM will return to its usual cadence—one free weekday post, one paywalled weekend post—next week.